According to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 97.9%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 2.1%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 34.0%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 64.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 1.4%.