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Key points of the Fed's July interest rate decision: Comparison of FOMC wording, Powell's term, and the Fed's independence
律动Jul 30, 2025
July 31st, a summary of the key points of the Federal Reserve's July interest rate decision is as follows:
**FOMC Statement:**
1. Voting Ratio: The interest rate decision is likely to pass with a 9-2 voting ratio, with Governors Bowman and Waller expected to vote against it.
2. Wording Comparison: There are expected to be few substantive changes, or a simplified expression of uncertainty about the economic outlook, acknowledging the economic slowdown in the first half of the year.
3. Balance Sheet Reduction: It is highly likely to remain unchanged (reducing holdings of US Treasury bonds by $5.00B and MBS by $35.00B per month).
**Powell Press Conference:**
1. Interest Rate Outlook: How to view the "two rate cuts" expectation implied by the June dot plot? Will it give clues about the rate cut outlook in September?
2. Economic Data: It is expected to emphasize the importance of data and continue the communication style of data dependence and meeting-by-meeting decision-making.
3. Inflation and Tariffs: It may remain cautious and reiterate maintaining price stability; if it emphasizes the upward risk of tariffs on inflation, it may be more hawkish than expected.
4. Term and Independence: Facing frequent pressure from Trump, it is highly likely that he will not make a substantive response, and is expected to reiterate maintaining independence and professionalism during his term. [Golden Ten Data] [律动]
**FOMC Statement:**
1. Voting Ratio: The interest rate decision is likely to pass with a 9-2 voting ratio, with Governors Bowman and Waller expected to vote against it.
2. Wording Comparison: There are expected to be few substantive changes, or a simplified expression of uncertainty about the economic outlook, acknowledging the economic slowdown in the first half of the year.
3. Balance Sheet Reduction: It is highly likely to remain unchanged (reducing holdings of US Treasury bonds by $5.00B and MBS by $35.00B per month).
**Powell Press Conference:**
1. Interest Rate Outlook: How to view the "two rate cuts" expectation implied by the June dot plot? Will it give clues about the rate cut outlook in September?
2. Economic Data: It is expected to emphasize the importance of data and continue the communication style of data dependence and meeting-by-meeting decision-making.
3. Inflation and Tariffs: It may remain cautious and reiterate maintaining price stability; if it emphasizes the upward risk of tariffs on inflation, it may be more hawkish than expected.
4. Term and Independence: Facing frequent pressure from Trump, it is highly likely that he will not make a substantive response, and is expected to reiterate maintaining independence and professionalism during his term. [Golden Ten Data] [律动]
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Key points of the Fed's July interest rate decision: Comparison of FOMC wording, Powell's term, and the Fed's independence
律动Jul 30, 2025
July 31st, a summary of the key points of the Federal Reserve's July interest rate decision is as follows:
**FOMC Statement:**
1. Voting Ratio: The interest rate decision is likely to pass with a 9-2 voting ratio, with Governors Bowman and Waller expected to vote against it.
2. Wording Comparison: There are expected to be few substantive changes, or a simplified expression of uncertainty about the economic outlook, acknowledging the economic slowdown in the first half of the year.
3. Balance Sheet Reduction: It is highly likely to remain unchanged (reducing holdings of US Treasury bonds by $5.00B and MBS by $35.00B per month).
**Powell Press Conference:**
1. Interest Rate Outlook: How to view the "two rate cuts" expectation implied by the June dot plot? Will it give clues about the rate cut outlook in September?
2. Economic Data: It is expected to emphasize the importance of data and continue the communication style of data dependence and meeting-by-meeting decision-making.
3. Inflation and Tariffs: It may remain cautious and reiterate maintaining price stability; if it emphasizes the upward risk of tariffs on inflation, it may be more hawkish than expected.
4. Term and Independence: Facing frequent pressure from Trump, it is highly likely that he will not make a substantive response, and is expected to reiterate maintaining independence and professionalism during his term. [Golden Ten Data] [律动]
**FOMC Statement:**
1. Voting Ratio: The interest rate decision is likely to pass with a 9-2 voting ratio, with Governors Bowman and Waller expected to vote against it.
2. Wording Comparison: There are expected to be few substantive changes, or a simplified expression of uncertainty about the economic outlook, acknowledging the economic slowdown in the first half of the year.
3. Balance Sheet Reduction: It is highly likely to remain unchanged (reducing holdings of US Treasury bonds by $5.00B and MBS by $35.00B per month).
**Powell Press Conference:**
1. Interest Rate Outlook: How to view the "two rate cuts" expectation implied by the June dot plot? Will it give clues about the rate cut outlook in September?
2. Economic Data: It is expected to emphasize the importance of data and continue the communication style of data dependence and meeting-by-meeting decision-making.
3. Inflation and Tariffs: It may remain cautious and reiterate maintaining price stability; if it emphasizes the upward risk of tariffs on inflation, it may be more hawkish than expected.
4. Term and Independence: Facing frequent pressure from Trump, it is highly likely that he will not make a substantive response, and is expected to reiterate maintaining independence and professionalism during his term. [Golden Ten Data] [律动]
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