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Huatai Securities: Whether the Federal Reserve can cut interest rates in September mainly depends on the economic data for July and August

TechFlowJul 31, 2025
#Macro
On July 31, according to Jinshi Data, Huatai Securities' research report stated that Powell's speech failed to provide guidance for a rate cut in September, and the speech was hawkish. In terms of fundamentals, Powell emphasized that the job market is relatively solid, but admitted that there are downside risks. In terms of interest rate guidance, Powell did not give clear guidance on a rate cut in September, emphasizing that the rate cut decision depends on subsequent data. Looking ahead, whether the Federal Reserve can cut interest rates in September mainly depends on the economic data for July-August. We maintain our judgment that the Federal Reserve is still likely to cut interest rates twice in September-December. However, if employment and inflation data are stronger than expected, the market's expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut within the year may further retreat. Focus on the new non-farm payroll data to be released this Friday (August 1). [Techflow]
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Huatai Securities: Whether the Federal Reserve can cut interest rates in September mainly depends on the economic data for July and August

TechFlowJul 31, 2025
#Macro
On July 31, according to Jinshi Data, Huatai Securities' research report stated that Powell's speech failed to provide guidance for a rate cut in September, and the speech was hawkish. In terms of fundamentals, Powell emphasized that the job market is relatively solid, but admitted that there are downside risks. In terms of interest rate guidance, Powell did not give clear guidance on a rate cut in September, emphasizing that the rate cut decision depends on subsequent data. Looking ahead, whether the Federal Reserve can cut interest rates in September mainly depends on the economic data for July-August. We maintain our judgment that the Federal Reserve is still likely to cut interest rates twice in September-December. However, if employment and inflation data are stronger than expected, the market's expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut within the year may further retreat. Focus on the new non-farm payroll data to be released this Friday (August 1). [Techflow]
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