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CITIC Securities: The Fed is expected to cut interest rates again at its September interest rate meeting.

TechFlowJul 31, 2025
#Macro
On July 31, according to Jinshi Data, CITIC Securities Research Report stated that the Federal Reserve's July 2025 interest rate meeting maintained the policy interest rate unchanged, which is in line with market expectations. Powell's speech did not reveal much about the prospect of a September interest rate adjustment. The most noteworthy aspect of this press conference is the Federal Reserve's judgment on tariff inflation, which has changed again. "Tariff inflation is a one-off event" is the reasonable benchmark scenario that Powell currently believes. Under the assumption that "tariff inflation is a one-off event" and the US economic growth is weaker than last year, the "moderately restrictive" interest rate policy should reduce the restriction. We maintain our previous view that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again at the September interest rate meeting. [Techflow]
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CITIC Securities: The Fed is expected to cut interest rates again at its September interest rate meeting.

TechFlowJul 31, 2025
#Macro
On July 31, according to Jinshi Data, CITIC Securities Research Report stated that the Federal Reserve's July 2025 interest rate meeting maintained the policy interest rate unchanged, which is in line with market expectations. Powell's speech did not reveal much about the prospect of a September interest rate adjustment. The most noteworthy aspect of this press conference is the Federal Reserve's judgment on tariff inflation, which has changed again. "Tariff inflation is a one-off event" is the reasonable benchmark scenario that Powell currently believes. Under the assumption that "tariff inflation is a one-off event" and the US economic growth is weaker than last year, the "moderately restrictive" interest rate policy should reduce the restriction. We maintain our previous view that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again at the September interest rate meeting. [Techflow]
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