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Institutions: The threshold for a Fed rate cut in September has risen

MetaEraJul 31, 2025
#Macro
On July 31 (UTC+8), Van Lanschot Kempen investment strategist Joost Van Leenders said in a report that the threshold for a rate cut in September has been raised after the Federal Reserve's decision on Wednesday to keep interest rates unchanged, even though two dissenters voted in favor of a 25 basis point rate cut. The veteran investment strategist said the Fed will get two rounds of inflation and jobs data, but the changes in that data are unlikely to be large enough to warrant a rate cut. He said that for a rate cut to occur, inflation should moderate toward the Fed's 2% target, but given the pass-through effects of import tariffs we expect, the likelihood of this happening is extremely low. The other scenario is that the labor market needs to weaken significantly. [Jin10]
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Institutions: The threshold for a Fed rate cut in September has risen

MetaEraJul 31, 2025
#Macro
On July 31 (UTC+8), Van Lanschot Kempen investment strategist Joost Van Leenders said in a report that the threshold for a rate cut in September has been raised after the Federal Reserve's decision on Wednesday to keep interest rates unchanged, even though two dissenters voted in favor of a 25 basis point rate cut. The veteran investment strategist said the Fed will get two rounds of inflation and jobs data, but the changes in that data are unlikely to be large enough to warrant a rate cut. He said that for a rate cut to occur, inflation should moderate toward the Fed's 2% target, but given the pass-through effects of import tariffs we expect, the likelihood of this happening is extremely low. The other scenario is that the labor market needs to weaken significantly. [Jin10]
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