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US non-farm payroll data will be released tonight, and the results will have a significant impact on the Fed's September interest rate decision.

ChainCatcherAug 1, 2025
#Macro
The U.S. July jobs report, due out at 8:30 p.m. Beijing time on Friday, is expected to show 110,000 new jobs, a significant drop from 147,000 in June; the unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly from 4.1% to 4.2%; and average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month, up from 0.2% in June. If the forecast is accurate, it would reinforce the view that the labor market is slowing, although it would not necessarily require a response from the Federal Reserve. At this week's earlier rate-setting meeting, Powell gave no guidance on the September rate decision, noting that there is a lot of data to be released before then, and Friday's July non-farm payrolls report will be a piece of the puzzle that will help influence the Fed's September rate cut expectations. Analysts point out that if non-farm payrolls are below 100,000 and the unemployment rate rises, it may indicate a weakening labor market, dampen the Fed's rekindled hawkish expectations, and put pressure on the dollar, which would be conducive to a rebound in gold prices. However, if non-farm payrolls unexpectedly exceed 150,000, the dollar's strength may continue, as strong U.S. jobs data could rule out the possibility of two Fed rate cuts this year. (Golden Ten) [ChainCatcher]
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US non-farm payroll data will be released tonight, and the results will have a significant impact on the Fed's September interest rate decision.

ChainCatcherAug 1, 2025
#Macro
The U.S. July jobs report, due out at 8:30 p.m. Beijing time on Friday, is expected to show 110,000 new jobs, a significant drop from 147,000 in June; the unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly from 4.1% to 4.2%; and average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month, up from 0.2% in June. If the forecast is accurate, it would reinforce the view that the labor market is slowing, although it would not necessarily require a response from the Federal Reserve. At this week's earlier rate-setting meeting, Powell gave no guidance on the September rate decision, noting that there is a lot of data to be released before then, and Friday's July non-farm payrolls report will be a piece of the puzzle that will help influence the Fed's September rate cut expectations. Analysts point out that if non-farm payrolls are below 100,000 and the unemployment rate rises, it may indicate a weakening labor market, dampen the Fed's rekindled hawkish expectations, and put pressure on the dollar, which would be conducive to a rebound in gold prices. However, if non-farm payrolls unexpectedly exceed 150,000, the dollar's strength may continue, as strong U.S. jobs data could rule out the possibility of two Fed rate cuts this year. (Golden Ten) [ChainCatcher]
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