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Before the release of the non-farm payrolls data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September was 41%.

TechFlowAug 1, 2025
#Macro
On August 1, according to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 59.0%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 41.0%. The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in October is 36.3%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 47.9%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 15.8%. (Golden Ten) [Techflow]
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Before the release of the non-farm payrolls data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September was 41%.

TechFlowAug 1, 2025
#Macro
On August 1, according to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 59.0%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 41.0%. The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in October is 36.3%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 47.9%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 15.8%. (Golden Ten) [Techflow]
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