Glassnode: If the market continues to weaken, it will become a key warning signal of structural weakness. The recent pullback is mainly due to local deleveraging rather than a large-scale withdrawal of funds.
On October 15, Glassnode posted on social media that Bitcoin's rise to $126,000 reversed under the dual impact of macroeconomic pressures and the liquidation of $19 billion in futures contracts. As ETF inflows slow and market volatility soars, this historic deleveraging is driving the market into a reset phase.
Analysts say this pullback is particularly alarming - the third time it has fallen below the 0.95 quantile price model ($117,100.00) since the end of August. This price level concentrates over 5% of the circulating supply (mainly held by top buyers), and falling below it puts them in a floating loss. The current price has fallen back to the $108,400.00 to $117,100.00 range, away from the previous frenzy. If it fails to recover the $117,100.00 level, the market may test the lower edge of the range. Historical data shows that losing this area often triggers medium- to long-term corrections, and if it continues to be below $108,400.00, it will become a key warning sign of structural weakness.
Continued selling by long-term holders (LTH) since July 2025 is further limiting upward momentum. During this period, the LTH supply decreased by approximately 300,000 $BTC, indicating that mature investors are steadily taking profits. This continued selling pressure highlights the risk of demand exhaustion, and the market may enter a volatile phase. If the selling continues and new demand fails to follow, there may be cyclical pullbacks or local panic selling before balance is restored.
It is worth noting that spot trading volume surged during this round of liquidation, reaching a peak for the year. Monitoring through the Cumulative Volume Delta Bias (CVDB) found that the Binance platform was under tremendous active selling pressure, while Coinbase showed net buying, indicating that institutional investors were taking over the sell-off on American trading platforms. Overall, the CVDB only shows a mild net selling tendency, far weaker than the spot panic selling at the end of February 2025. This suggests that the recent pullback is mainly due to local deleveraging, rather than a large-scale withdrawal of funds.
[BlockBeats]
Glassnode: If the market continues to weaken, it will become a key warning signal of structural weakness. The recent pullback is mainly due to local deleveraging rather than a large-scale withdrawal of funds.
On October 15, Glassnode posted on social media that Bitcoin's rise to $126,000 reversed under the dual impact of macroeconomic pressures and the liquidation of $19 billion in futures contracts. As ETF inflows slow and market volatility soars, this historic deleveraging is driving the market into a reset phase.
Analysts say this pullback is particularly alarming - the third time it has fallen below the 0.95 quantile price model ($117,100.00) since the end of August. This price level concentrates over 5% of the circulating supply (mainly held by top buyers), and falling below it puts them in a floating loss. The current price has fallen back to the $108,400.00 to $117,100.00 range, away from the previous frenzy. If it fails to recover the $117,100.00 level, the market may test the lower edge of the range. Historical data shows that losing this area often triggers medium- to long-term corrections, and if it continues to be below $108,400.00, it will become a key warning sign of structural weakness.
Continued selling by long-term holders (LTH) since July 2025 is further limiting upward momentum. During this period, the LTH supply decreased by approximately 300,000 BTC, indicating that mature investors are steadily taking profits. This continued selling pressure highlights the risk of demand exhaustion, and the market may enter a volatile phase. If the selling continues and new demand fails to follow, there may be cyclical pullbacks or local panic selling before balance is restored.
It is worth noting that spot trading volume surged during this round of liquidation, reaching a peak for the year. Monitoring through the Cumulative Volume Delta Bias (CVDB) found that the Binance platform was under tremendous active selling pressure, while Coinbase showed net buying, indicating that institutional investors were taking over the sell-off on American trading platforms. Overall, the CVDB only shows a mild net selling tendency, far weaker than the spot panic selling at the end of February 2025. This suggests that the recent pullback is mainly due to local deleveraging, rather than a large-scale withdrawal of funds.
[BlockBeats]
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