Glassnode: If the market continues to weaken, it will become a key warning signal of structural weakness. The recent correction is mainly due to local deleveraging rather than a large-scale withdrawal of funds.
BlockBeatsOct 15, 2025On October 15th, Glassnode posted on social media that Bitcoin's rally to $126,000 reversed due to the combined impact of macroeconomic pressures and the liquidation of $19 billion in futures contracts. With ETF inflows slowing and market volatility soaring, this historic round of leveraged liquidation is pushing the market into a reset. Analysts say this pullback is particularly alarming—this is the third time since late August that the price has fallen below the 0.95 percentile price model (US$117,100). This level holds over 5% of the circulating supply (primarily held by top buyers), and a break below it would lead to unrealized losses. The current price has fallen back to the $108,400-$117,100 range, breaking away from the previous frenzy. Failure to reclaim $117,100 could lead to a decline to the lower end of the range. Historical data shows that a breakdown below this level often triggers a medium- to long-term correction. A sustained decline below $108,400 would be a key warning sign of structural weakness. The continued reduction in holdings by long-term holders (LTH) since July 2025 has further constrained upward momentum. During this period, LTH supply has decreased by approximately 300,000 $BTC, indicating a steady pace of profit-taking by sophisticated investors. This sustained selling pressure highlights the risk of demand exhaustion, potentially leading to a period of market volatility. If the reduction continues without new demand, periodic pullbacks or localized panic selling may occur before equilibrium is restored. Notably, spot trading volume surged during this wave of liquidations, reaching a peak for the year. Monitoring the Cumulative Volume Delta Deviation (CVDB) reveals significant active selling pressure on Binance, while Coinbase showed net buying, indicating that institutional investors are taking the selling pressure on US-based exchanges. Overall, the CVDB shows only a modest net selling bias, far less pronounced than the panic selling seen in the spot market at the end of February 2025. This suggests that the recent pullback is primarily driven by localized deleveraging rather than a large-scale capital outflow. [BlockBeats]
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Glassnode: If the market continues to weaken, it will become a key warning signal of structural weakness. The recent correction is mainly due to local deleveraging rather than a large-scale withdrawal of funds.
BlockBeatsOct 15, 2025On October 15th, Glassnode posted on social media that Bitcoin's rally to $126,000 reversed due to the combined impact of macroeconomic pressures and the liquidation of $19 billion in futures contracts. With ETF inflows slowing and market volatility soaring, this historic round of leveraged liquidation is pushing the market into a reset. Analysts say this pullback is particularly alarming—this is the third time since late August that the price has fallen below the 0.95 percentile price model (US$117,100). This level holds over 5% of the circulating supply (primarily held by top buyers), and a break below it would lead to unrealized losses. The current price has fallen back to the $108,400-$117,100 range, breaking away from the previous frenzy. Failure to reclaim $117,100 could lead to a decline to the lower end of the range. Historical data shows that a breakdown below this level often triggers a medium- to long-term correction. A sustained decline below $108,400 would be a key warning sign of structural weakness. The continued reduction in holdings by long-term holders (LTH) since July 2025 has further constrained upward momentum. During this period, LTH supply has decreased by approximately 300,000 BTC, indicating a steady pace of profit-taking by sophisticated investors. This sustained selling pressure highlights the risk of demand exhaustion, potentially leading to a period of market volatility. If the reduction continues without new demand, periodic pullbacks or localized panic selling may occur before equilibrium is restored. Notably, spot trading volume surged during this wave of liquidations, reaching a peak for the year. Monitoring the Cumulative Volume Delta Deviation (CVDB) reveals significant active selling pressure on Binance, while Coinbase showed net buying, indicating that institutional investors are taking the selling pressure on US-based exchanges. Overall, the CVDB shows only a modest net selling bias, far less pronounced than the panic selling seen in the spot market at the end of February 2025. This suggests that the recent pullback is primarily driven by localized deleveraging rather than a large-scale capital outflow. [BlockBeats]
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