Analysis: Today's ADP data unlikely to shake Fed's December rate cut expectations

律动Dec 3, 2025
#Macro
On December 3, according to IFR, a media outlet under Reuters, current market positioning indicates that the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in December is nearly certain. Today's ADP and PMI data are unlikely to be strong enough to prevent the Fed from cutting rates in December.

November's ADP employment change is expected to increase by 10,000, significantly lower than October's 42,000. Due to the government shutdown delaying the release of key labor market data, this month's ADP report is particularly important. Previously, the ADP weekly employment report recorded negative values for three consecutive weeks, although it remains unclear how well these figures align with actual monthly data.

[BlockBeats]

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Analysis: Today's ADP data unlikely to shake Fed's December rate cut expectations

律动Dec 3, 2025
#Macro
On December 3, according to IFR, a media outlet under Reuters, current market positioning indicates that the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in December is nearly certain. Today's ADP and PMI data are unlikely to be strong enough to prevent the Fed from cutting rates in December.

November's ADP employment change is expected to increase by 10,000, significantly lower than October's 42,000. Due to the government shutdown delaying the release of key labor market data, this month's ADP report is particularly important. Previously, the ADP weekly employment report recorded negative values for three consecutive weeks, although it remains unclear how well these figures align with actual monthly data.

[BlockBeats]

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