The probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December remains largely unchanged after the ADP release compared to before.

OdailyDec 3, 2025
According to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 88.8%, and the probability of maintaining unchanged interest rates is 11.2%. The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by January next year is 63.0%, the probability of maintaining unchanged interest rates is 7.5%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 basis points is 29.5%.

[Odaily]

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The probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December remains largely unchanged after the ADP release compared to before.

OdailyDec 3, 2025
According to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 88.8%, and the probability of maintaining unchanged interest rates is 11.2%. The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by January next year is 63.0%, the probability of maintaining unchanged interest rates is 7.5%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 basis points is 29.5%.

[Odaily]

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